Of Lotteries

Lot of people in India believe this India South Africa series is a lottery. The results certainly back them. But I am confused as to why it should be.

One cannot deny the fact that on every occasion, the team winning the toss has fielded first has gone on to win pretty comfortably. Well maybe a little less than comfortably in Hyderabad and a little more than comfortably in Kolkata for South Africa.

But fact is it was not as if the toss had rendered the rest of the match worthless. Now consider Hyderabad. A little bit of seam movement early in the morning, nothing to make a hue and cry about. But we lost 5 wickets in that. In Kolkata, well certainly much more grass, but again as Yuvi and Kaif showed that once one took some time to settle down, one could certainly score and score pretty quick. Their 81 run stand came in 17 overs. So certainly a wicket where if one could survive the first few balls, one could go on and score. Yet just the fear of seeing a green wicket saw our top-order comprising Sachin and Dravid to crumble like a pack of cards.

Even Bangalore was not a 170 wicket. Fact is South Africa can't play on spinning wickets for nuts. I'm sure even if India had batted first that day, we would have won on that wicket.

Oh well, as I write I think I can conclude that yes, this series is indeed a lottery but not based on the toss of the coin but on the nature of the wicket. We have a very interesting situation indeed. India cannot play on seaming wickets, South Africa cannot play on spinning wickets and the scoreline is as much a reflection on the wickets prepared as it is on the two teams !!!